Air freight resilience faces a new test amid prolonged Middle East conflict
Written by Neil Mason
Why Air Freight Resilience Is Under Pressure Again
The global air freight market is facing another stress test as conflict in the Middle East compounds already muted growth expectations for 2026. According to industry analyst Xeneta, the sector is entering a period of heightened uncertainty where air freight resilience can no longer be taken for granted, even as supply chains draw on lessons learned from Covid and Red Sea disruptions.
Historically, air cargo has acted as a stabilising force during crises, stepping in when ocean freight faltered. This time, however, the disruption is hitting airlines and air cargo capacity directly, rather than creating a simple modal shift from sea to air.
Supply Will Recover… But at a Cost
Industry analyst, Xeneta notes that while air freight supply is constrained, it is not structurally broken. Capacity has already begun shifting to safer regional hubs such as Muscat and Jeddah, demonstrating a degree of operational flexibility across airline and forwarding networks.
However, that flexibility comes at a cost. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the conflict escalated, pushing air freight rates higher across multiple corridors. Global spot rates in March reached USD 2.86 per kilo, surpassing 2025 peak‑season levels and marking the highest point since December 2024.
For shippers, cost is only one variable. Protecting service levels, customer commitments and market share remains critical, particularly for industries reliant on time‑critical or high‑value air cargo.
Contracting Behaviour Signals Market Caution
The timing of the disruption has intensified its impact. The conflict escalated during annual tender season, accelerating a shift already underway toward shorter‑term air freight contracts. In Q1 2026, many shippers moved from annual agreements to three‑month terms, compressing rate validity across the market.
Spot market reliance has increased sharply. By March, 52% of global air cargo volumes were moving under spot rates, a level comparable to the early stages of the Covid pandemic. This reflects a market unwilling to commit amid rapidly changing cost and capacity dynamics.
Ripple Effects Across Global Trade Lanes
The disruption is no longer confined to the Middle East. With the region accounting for roughly half of capacity on Asia–Europe corridors, supply constraints are reshaping global flows.
South Asia and Southeast Asia outbound lanes have experienced the sharpest rate spikes, with increases of 50–100% in some weeks. Europe–Africa and Asia–North America routes have also seen double‑digit growth, driven by fuel costs, war‑risk surcharges and reduced connectivity through Middle Eastern hubs.
By contrast, some lanes, including Europe–North America, have softened as passenger schedules restored belly‑hold capacity.
Why Air Freight Resilience Matters Now
Xeneta warns that while today’s challenge is primarily a supply issue, prolonged conflict risks triggering a broader demand downturn tied to energy costs, inflation and economic slowdown.
In 2026, air freight resilience will depend less on headline capacity and more on network agility, contract flexibility and trusted shipper–carrier relationships. The longer uncertainty persists, the more strategic air cargo decisions become.